Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
